Hot spot / cold spot targeting commissioned to support labor media planning in a statewide primary. We combined occupational data, union density estimates, and candidate performance into a precinct-level engagement priority — telling the buyer where to spend, where to skip, and why.
Occupation data at the precinct level requires assembly — ACS gives you occupational distribution by tract, which we apportion to precincts using block-level population weighting. We layered that with union density estimates derived from public LM-2 filings and BLS regional data.
The candidate-performance overlay used five cycles of statewide and federal primary results, weighted toward more recent elections. Hot spots are precincts where the trades vote is concentrated AND the candidate has demonstrated above-average pull — high-value media buys. Cold spots are the inverse: trades-heavy precincts where the candidate underperforms — likely better spent on field contact than paid media.
The deliverable was a precinct-level engagement priority file that the buyer's media team could feed directly into their geo-targeting platform.
Most precinct overlap analyses take 1–2 weeks. We start with a 20-minute scoping call to figure out the universe, the deliverable, and whether VoterForce is the right tool for what you're trying to do.
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